politics · constituency
upcoming
A swing electorate, under a policy reversal.
How fast approval flips from with-you to against.
reports
What the instrument finds, and how we read it.
Two kinds of reading. Stress tests are real runs on real populations, published in full, no login. Field notes are longer-form thinking on how populations move, and why most tools miss it.
stress tests
real runs · no login · no sales call
The hard reports. Each one points the engine at a real population, runs the pipeline, and publishes what fell out. These are the lead magnet and the proof of horizontality at the same time: a new domain published here is the breadth argument, demonstrated rather than asserted.
supplements · subscriptions
jul 2026
Where supplement-subscription churn actually goes.
9,030 typed defection edges; 63% land where no win-back can follow.
coffee · subscriptions
jul 2026
Where coffee-subscription churn actually goes.
1,599 typed defection edges; 13% land where no win-back can follow.
automotive · owners
jun 2026
Porsche: where the premium is under pressure.
Resale anxiety at 0.90 defection-proximity, and the exits already named.
streaming · customers
apr 2026
Netflix's audience, under a price increase.
Public signal flagged a ~14% at-risk cohort, most of it reversible.
workplace · employees
upcoming
A tech workforce, under a return-to-office mandate.
Where latent attrition becomes a wave.
field notes
longer-form thinking
The thought-leadership stream. Essays on populations, tipping points, and the difference between counting complaints and modeling a crowd. This is where the category gets defined in words, and it is deliberately styled as writing, not data.
method
read →
You cannot cluster a brand, only a category.
A single brand is too sparse to hold structure. Build the friction map from the category, then score the brand against it.
concept
read →
Density, not presence.
Every churn tool counts dead bodies. Here is why that is the wrong unit of measure.
concept
read →
Churn has a grammar.
Source, destination, trigger. A defection is a sentence, and the parts are the part worth keeping.
method
read →
The half-life of a complaint.
Some friction never ages. Some expires in months. Treating both as current is the central error of complaint-scraping.
practice
read →
Why your dashboard turns red too late.
Linear alerts on a non-linear process. The math of being surprised.
method
read →
Your churn model predicts the past.
A forecast tells you which customers resemble the ones who already left. It cannot tell you who leaves when you change the conditions.
method
read →
The two rules of predicting a crowd.
What Foundation got right about modeling people, and where the honesty has to come in.
method
read →
The cheapest customer to save.
Leaving is a crossing, not an event. Mid-crossing there is a window where a small intervention does the work of a large one. Most retention budgets miss it.
new stress tests and notes land here first. the whole argument in one place is the churn guide.
Bring us a population